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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU OCT 3 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.7N 83.5W 45 X X X 45 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6
23.0N 86.1W 2 28 X X 30 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7
24.5N 88.5W X 7 13 1 21 PENSACOLA FL X X X 8 8
MWCG 193N 814W 39 X X X 39 MOBILE AL X X X 8 8
MUCF 221N 805W 44 X X 1 45 GULFPORT MS X X X 10 10
MUSN 216N 826W 56 X X X 56 BURAS LA X X 1 12 13
MUHA 230N 824W 38 1 X X 39 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 12 12
MUAN 219N 850W 24 9 X X 33 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 13 13
MMCZ 205N 869W 1 5 X 1 7 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 12 12
MMMD 210N 897W X 1 1 1 3 GALVESTON TX X X X 12 12
MARATHON FL 4 5 1 X 10 FREEPORT TX X X X 11 11
MIAMI FL X 1 1 1 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 9 9
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 1 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 7 7
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 4 4
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 7 8
KEY WEST FL 9 8 1 X 18 GULF 29N 87W X X 2 10 12
MARCO ISLAND FL X 4 2 1 7 GULF 28N 89W X X 5 11 16
FT MYERS FL X 2 2 2 6 GULF 28N 91W X X 2 14 16
VENICE FL X 1 3 3 7 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 13 14
TAMPA FL X X 2 3 5 GULF 28N 95W X X X 11 11
CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 27N 96W X X X 9 9
ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4 GULF 25N 96W X X X 5 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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