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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU OCT 3 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.3N 82.3W 51 X X X 51 PENSACOLA FL X X X 10 10
22.5N 84.5W 9 30 X X 39 MOBILE AL X X X 12 12
24.0N 87.0W X 13 19 X 32 GULFPORT MS X X X 15 15
MKJS 185N 779W 99 X X X 99 BURAS LA X X 1 17 18
MWCG 193N 814W 32 X X X 32 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 18 18
MUCM 214N 779W 3 X X X 3 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 18 18
MUCF 221N 805W 42 X X X 42 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 14 14
MUSN 216N 826W 48 X X X 48 GALVESTON TX X X X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W 28 8 X X 36 FREEPORT TX X X X 10 10
MUAN 219N 850W 7 27 1 X 35 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 6 6
MMCZ 205N 869W X 7 6 1 14 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 3 3
MMMD 210N 897W X X 4 5 9 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL 1 5 X X 6 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 4 6
KEY WEST FL 2 11 1 X 14 GULF 29N 87W X X 3 11 14
MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 1 X 3 GULF 28N 89W X X 6 16 22
FT MYERS FL X 1 1 X 2 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 20 21
VENICE FL X X 2 X 2 GULF 28N 93W X X X 18 18
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W X X X 11 11
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 27N 96W X X X 7 7
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 5 6 GULF 25N 96W X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
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