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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED OCT 2 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.2N 81.6W 51 X 1 X 52 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6
22.4N 84.0W 7 32 X X 39 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7
23.9N 86.3W X 16 15 X 31 PENSACOLA FL X X X 10 10
MKJS 185N 779W 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X X 11 11
MWCG 193N 814W 31 X X X 31 GULFPORT MS X X X 13 13
MUCM 214N 779W 16 X X X 16 BURAS LA X X X 16 16
MUCF 221N 805W 43 1 X X 44 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 14 14
MUSN 216N 826W 40 5 X X 45 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 13 13
MUHA 230N 824W 20 18 X X 38 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 8 8
MUAN 219N 850W 1 30 1 X 32 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7
MMCZ 205N 869W X 4 5 1 10 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5
MMMD 210N 897W X X 2 5 7 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
MARATHON FL 1 7 2 X 10 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 7 8
KEY WEST FL 1 15 1 X 17 GULF 29N 87W X X 2 12 14
MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 2 1 5 GULF 28N 89W X X 3 16 19
FT MYERS FL X 1 1 2 4 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 16 17
VENICE FL X X 3 2 5 GULF 28N 93W X X X 13 13
TAMPA FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 28N 95W X X X 7 7
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3
ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 GULF 25N 96W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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