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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED OCT 2 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.5N 80.6W 53 X X X 53 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4
21.7N 82.5W 16 24 X X 40 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4
22.8N 84.7W X 20 11 1 32 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7
MKJS 185N 779W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7
MWCG 193N 814W 33 1 X X 34 PENSACOLA FL X X X 8 8
MUCM 214N 779W 23 X X X 23 MOBILE AL X X X 8 8
MUCF 221N 805W 34 3 X X 37 GULFPORT MS X X X 10 10
MUSN 216N 826W 15 25 X X 40 BURAS LA X X X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W 4 30 X X 34 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 10 10
MUAN 219N 850W X 18 10 1 29 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 8 8
MMCZ 205N 869W X 1 9 4 14 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3
MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 7 8 GALVESTON TX X X X 3 3
MARATHON FL X 11 3 X 14 FREEPORT TX X X X 2 2
MIAMI FL X 1 2 1 4 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 8 9
KEY WEST FL X 15 4 X 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 13 13
MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 5 2 9 GULF 28N 89W X X X 16 16
FT MYERS FL X 1 4 2 7 GULF 28N 91W X X X 13 13
VENICE FL X X 4 4 8 GULF 28N 93W X X X 8 8
TAMPA FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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