[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIASPFAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.8 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT WED OCT  2 2002
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
20.5N  80.6W      53  X  X  X 53   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  4  4
21.7N  82.5W      16 24  X  X 40   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  4  4
22.8N  84.7W       X 20 11  1 32   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  7  7
MKJS 185N 779W    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  7  7
MWCG 193N 814W    33  1  X  X 34   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  8  8
MUCM 214N 779W    23  X  X  X 23   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  8  8
MUCF 221N 805W    34  3  X  X 37   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X 10 10
MUSN 216N 826W    15 25  X  X 40   BURAS LA           X  X  X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W     4 30  X  X 34   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X 10 10
MUAN 219N 850W     X 18 10  1 29   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  8  8
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  1  9  4 14   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  3  3
MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  1  7  8   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  3  3
MARATHON FL        X 11  3  X 14   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  1  2  1  4   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1  8  9
KEY WEST FL        X 15  4  X 19   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X 13 13
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  2  5  2  9   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X 16 16
FT MYERS FL        X  1  4  2  7   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X 13 13
VENICE FL          X  X  4  4  8   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  8  8
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  4  5   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  3  3
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
NNNN


Webmaster