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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED OCT 2 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.2N 80.0W 50 X X X 50 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 6 4 11
21.2N 81.8W 19 16 X 1 36 FT MYERS FL X X 4 5 9
22.4N 83.8W X 19 9 1 29 VENICE FL X X 3 6 9
MKJP 179N 768W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X X 1 5 6
MKJS 185N 779W 99 X X X 99 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4
MWCG 193N 814W 26 2 X X 28 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3
MUCM 214N 779W 25 X X X 25 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6
MUCF 221N 805W 24 8 X X 32 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6
MUSN 216N 826W 4 27 1 X 32 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W 1 23 4 X 28 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5
MUAN 219N 850W X 8 14 2 24 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 7 6 13 BURAS LA X X X 7 7
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 7 7 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 5 5
MARATHON FL X 7 7 1 15 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3
MIAMI FL X 1 3 2 6 GULF 29N 85W X X X 8 8
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 10 10
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 12 12
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 8 8
KEY WEST FL X 9 8 2 19 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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