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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.6N 78.2W 54 X X X 54 FT PIERCE FL X X 2 6 8
21.6N 79.7W 27 9 X X 36 COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 5 6
22.4N 81.4W 1 23 3 1 28 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4
MKJP 179N 768W 19 X 1 X 20 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
MKJS 185N 779W 31 X X 1 32 KEY WEST FL X 9 11 3 23
MWCG 193N 814W 1 8 2 2 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 10 6 17
MUGM 200N 751W 44 X X X 44 FT MYERS FL X X 8 7 15
MUCM 214N 779W 46 X X X 46 VENICE FL X X 4 9 13
MUCF 221N 805W 9 22 1 X 32 TAMPA FL X X 1 9 10
MUSN 216N 826W X 11 8 3 22 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 7 7
MUHA 230N 824W X 13 10 2 25 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4
MUAN 219N 850W X X 7 9 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6
MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 7 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5
MYEG 235N 758W 1 2 1 X 4 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3
MYAK 241N 776W 2 9 2 1 14 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2
MYNN 251N 775W X 3 3 2 8 BURAS LA X X X 2 2
MYGF 266N 787W X X 3 4 7 GULF 29N 85W X X X 8 8
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6
MARATHON FL X 10 10 2 22 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5
MIAMI FL X 3 9 3 15 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2
W PALM BEACH FL X 1 5 5 11
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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