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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.2N 77.7W 53 X X X 53 MIAMI FL X 1 7 6 14
21.0N 79.0W 31 6 X X 37 W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 7 10
21.5N 80.5W 4 21 3 X 28 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 6 7
MKJP 179N 768W 40 X X X 40 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 5 5
MKJS 185N 779W 29 X X X 29 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4
MWCG 193N 814W 1 7 5 3 16 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
MUGM 200N 751W 54 X X X 54 KEY WEST FL X 2 13 5 20
MUCM 214N 779W 36 1 1 X 38 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 6 9 15
MUCF 221N 805W 2 22 3 1 28 FT MYERS FL X X 3 10 13
MUSN 216N 826W X 5 12 4 21 VENICE FL X X 1 10 11
MUHA 230N 824W X 4 14 4 22 TAMPA FL X X X 8 8
MUAN 219N 850W X X 3 12 15 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 5 5
MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 7 7 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3
MYEG 235N 758W 1 2 2 1 6 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4
MYAK 241N 776W X 8 4 1 13 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W X 2 3 3 8 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5
MYGF 266N 787W X X 2 5 7 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL X 3 12 4 19
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
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