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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.8N 76.8W 59 X X X 59 MYAK 241N 776W X 1 7 5 13
19.6N 77.8W 34 3 X X 37 MYNN 251N 775W X X 3 6 9
20.4N 79.1W 5 21 2 1 29 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 7 7
MTCA 183N 738W 13 X X 1 14 MARATHON FL X X 5 11 16
MKJP 179N 768W 59 X X X 59 MIAMI FL X X 2 10 12
MKJS 185N 779W 35 X X X 35 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 9 9
MWCG 193N 814W X 4 9 5 18 FT PIERCE FL X X X 7 7
MUGM 200N 751W 21 1 X X 22 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 5 5
MUCM 214N 779W 6 18 2 1 27 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MUCF 221N 805W X 6 14 3 23 KEY WEST FL X X 4 12 16
MUSN 216N 826W X X 9 9 18 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 10 11
MUHA 230N 824W X X 8 9 17 FT MYERS FL X X X 10 10
MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 9 10 VENICE FL X X X 8 8
MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 3 3 TAMPA FL X X X 5 5
MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 3 3
MYEG 235N 758W X 1 4 3 8 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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