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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.5N 77.5W 51 X X X 51 MYAK 241N 776W X X 5 6 11
18.5N 78.5W 27 7 X X 34 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 6 7
19.5N 79.5W 3 22 2 1 28 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 5 5
MTCA 183N 738W 1 X X 3 4 MARATHON FL X X 4 10 14
MKJP 179N 768W 47 X X X 47 MIAMI FL X X 1 9 10
MKJS 185N 779W 34 2 X X 36 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 7 7
MWCG 193N 814W X 8 9 4 21 FT PIERCE FL X X X 5 5
MUGM 200N 751W 2 5 1 3 11 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MUCM 214N 779W X 14 5 3 22 KEY WEST FL X X 4 11 15
MUCF 221N 805W X 3 14 5 22 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 9 10
MUSN 216N 826W X X 9 9 18 FT MYERS FL X X X 8 8
MUHA 230N 824W X X 7 10 17 VENICE FL X X X 6 6
MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 8 9 TAMPA FL X X X 4 4
MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2
MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
MYEG 235N 758W X X 2 4 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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