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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  75.1 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
17.5N  77.5W      51  X  X  X 51   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  5  6 11
18.5N  78.5W      27  7  X  X 34   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  6  7
19.5N  79.5W       3 22  2  1 28   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  5  5
MTCA 183N 738W     1  X  X  3  4   MARATHON FL        X  X  4 10 14
MKJP 179N 768W    47  X  X  X 47   MIAMI FL           X  X  1  9 10
MKJS 185N 779W    34  2  X  X 36   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  7  7
MWCG 193N 814W     X  8  9  4 21   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  5  5
MUGM 200N 751W     2  5  1  3 11   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3
MUCM 214N 779W     X 14  5  3 22   KEY WEST FL        X  X  4 11 15
MUCF 221N 805W     X  3 14  5 22   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  1  9 10
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  9  9 18   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  8  8
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  7 10 17   VENICE FL          X  X  X  6  6
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  1  8  9   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  4  4
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  X  2  2   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2
MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  2  4  6
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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