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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 26 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN SEP 29 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
15.7N 73.2W 44 X X X 44 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 1 2
16.6N 74.7W 22 9 1 X 32 MYMM 224N 730W X X 2 4 6
17.8N 76.1W 1 21 4 1 27 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 6 6
MDSD 185N 697W X 1 X 1 2 MYEG 235N 758W X X 2 9 11
MDCB 176N 714W 15 2 1 X 18 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 11 12
MTPP 186N 724W 4 11 2 X 17 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 8 8
MTCA 183N 738W 5 19 1 X 25 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 5 5
MKJP 179N 768W X 15 8 2 25 MARATHON FL X X X 10 10
MKJS 185N 779W X 4 14 4 22 MIAMI FL X X X 8 8
MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 11 12 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 5 5
MUGM 200N 751W X 8 11 3 22 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3
MUCM 214N 779W X X 9 10 19 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2
MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 14 15 KEY WEST FL X X X 9 9
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 10 10 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 6 6
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 10 10 FT MYERS FL X X X 5 5
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 3 3 VENICE FL X X X 3 3
MDPP 198N 707W X 1 1 1 3 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN
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