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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 25 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT SEP 28 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
15.3N 72.6W 44 X X X 44 MDPP 198N 707W X 1 2 1 4
16.0N 74.0W 25 6 X X 31 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 2 3
17.1N 75.5W 1 20 4 1 26 MYMM 224N 730W X X 1 5 6
SKPG 125N 717W X 1 X 1 2 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 5 5
MDSD 185N 697W 1 1 1 1 4 MYEG 235N 758W X X 1 8 9
MDCB 176N 714W 13 4 1 X 18 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 10 10
MTPP 186N 724W 2 11 3 1 17 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 7 7
MTCA 183N 738W 1 18 3 2 24 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 4 4
MKJP 179N 768W X 7 13 3 23 MARATHON FL X X X 8 8
MKJS 185N 779W X 1 13 7 21 MIAMI FL X X X 6 6
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 11 11 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4
MUGM 200N 751W X 3 13 4 20 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2
MUCM 214N 779W X X 4 14 18 KEY WEST FL X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W X X X 13 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 4 4
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 8 8 FT MYERS FL X X X 3 3
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 8 8 VENICE FL X X X 2 2
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN
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