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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 25 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT SEP 28 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
16.2N 72.0W 45 X X X 45 MYMM 224N 730W X 2 10 6 18
18.0N 73.7W 6 28 X X 34 MYSM 241N 745W X X 5 11 16
19.5N 74.5W X 23 4 1 28 MYEG 235N 758W X X 6 12 18
MDSD 185N 697W 7 3 X 1 11 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 14 15
MDCB 176N 714W 31 2 1 X 34 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 13 13
MTPP 186N 724W 9 22 X X 31 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 8 8
MTCA 183N 738W 3 29 1 X 33 MARATHON FL X X X 6 6
MKJP 179N 768W X 8 7 2 17 MIAMI FL X X X 7 7
MKJS 185N 779W X 1 8 4 13 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 6 6
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X X X 5 5
MUGM 200N 751W X 14 9 2 25 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MUCM 214N 779W X X 7 10 17 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2
MUCF 221N 805W X X X 8 8 KEY WEST FL X X X 4 4
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 4 4
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X X X 3 3
MDPP 198N 707W 2 8 2 1 13 VENICE FL X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W X 3 6 3 12
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB
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