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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE SEP 24 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI SEP 27 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
15.7N 71.4W 47 X X X 47 MYMM 224N 730W X X 10 8 18
17.2N 73.0W 11 23 1 X 35 MYSM 241N 745W X X 2 13 15
18.7N 73.7W X 25 3 1 29 MYEG 235N 758W X X 2 15 17
MDSD 185N 697W 3 7 1 1 12 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 13 13
MDCB 176N 714W 19 12 X X 31 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 11 11
MTPP 186N 724W 1 26 1 X 28 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 6 6
MTCA 183N 738W X 27 2 1 30 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3
MKJP 179N 768W X 2 9 4 15 MIAMI FL X X X 4 4
MKJS 185N 779W X X 5 6 11 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 4 4
MUGM 200N 751W X 5 15 3 23 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2
MUCM 214N 779W X X 2 12 14 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2
MUCF 221N 805W X X X 5 5 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2
MDPP 198N 707W X 8 4 3 15 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W X 1 8 5 14
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA
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