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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 24 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI SEP 27 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
14.7N 69.2W 47 X X X 47 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 10 10
16.1N 70.7W 13 20 X X 33 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 2 2
17.5N 72.0W X 19 7 1 27 TJSJ 184N 661W 1 X 1 X 2
SKPG 125N 717W 2 6 1 X 9 MDPP 198N 707W X 8 10 3 21
TNCC 122N 690W 15 1 X X 16 MBJT 215N 712W X 1 8 7 16
TJPS 180N 666W 3 2 1 X 6 MYMM 224N 730W X X 4 12 16
MDSD 185N 697W 2 18 2 1 23 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 11 11
MDCB 176N 714W X 23 4 1 28 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 13 13
MTPP 186N 724W X 9 13 3 25 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 8 8
MTCA 183N 738W X 2 15 5 22 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 6 6
MKJP 179N 768W X X 1 10 11 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2
MKJS 185N 779W X X X 7 7 SAN JUAN PR 1 X 1 X 2
MUGM 200N 751W X X 6 13 19 PONCE PR 3 2 1 X 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB
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