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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 23 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU SEP 26 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
15.0N 67.1W 48 X X X 48 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 8 8
16.1N 69.0W 7 25 X X 32 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 5 5
17.0N 70.5W X 19 5 2 26 MUGM 200N 751W X X 1 13 14
SKPG 125N 717W X 1 3 2 6 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 5 5
TNCC 122N 690W 4 5 X X 9 TJSJ 184N 661W 10 7 X 1 18
TGPY 120N 618W 99 X X X 99 MDPP 198N 707W X 3 12 5 20
TVSV 131N 612W 99 X X X 99 MBJT 215N 712W X X 6 10 16
TLPL 138N 610W 34 X X X 34 MYMM 224N 730W X X 1 12 13
TFFF 146N 610W 3 X X X 3 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 7 7
SVBS 157N 636W 44 X X X 44 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 7 7
TISX 177N 648W 13 2 X X 15 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3
TIST 183N 650W 8 2 1 X 11 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2
TJPS 180N 666W 15 8 X X 23 ST CROIX VI 13 2 X X 15
MDSD 185N 697W X 17 6 1 24 ST THOMAS VI 8 2 1 X 11
MDCB 176N 714W X 8 12 3 23 SAN JUAN PR 10 7 X 1 18
MTPP 186N 724W X 1 13 7 21 PONCE PR 15 8 X X 23
MTCA 183N 738W X X 7 10 17
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB
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