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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 23 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU SEP 26 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
14.2N 66.2W 51 X X X 51 MTCA 183N 738W X X 5 15 20
15.2N 68.5W 7 27 X X 34 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 12 12
16.2N 70.4W X 17 8 1 26 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 9 9
SKPG 125N 717W X 1 3 2 6 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 17 17
TNCC 122N 690W 1 6 1 1 9 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 9 9
TTPT 112N 608W 2 X X X 2 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 2 2
TGPY 120N 618W 99 X X X 99 TJSJ 184N 661W 1 6 2 1 10
TBPB 131N 595W 58 X X X 58 MDPP 198N 707W X X 9 8 17
TVSV 131N 612W 99 X X X 99 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 10 11
TLPL 138N 610W 94 X X X 94 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 10 10
TFFF 146N 610W 22 X X X 22 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 5 5
TDPR 153N 614W 3 X X X 3 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 7 7
SVBS 157N 636W 28 X X X 28 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3
TISX 177N 648W 2 4 X 1 7 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2
TIST 183N 650W X 3 1 1 5 ST CROIX VI 2 4 X 1 7
TJPS 180N 666W 1 12 2 X 15 ST THOMAS VI X 3 1 1 5
MDSD 185N 697W X 5 14 2 21 SAN JUAN PR 1 6 2 1 10
MDCB 176N 714W X 3 17 4 24 PONCE PR 1 12 2 X 15
MTPP 186N 724W X X 11 10 21
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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