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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
11.0N 51.0W 48 X X X 48 TFFR 163N 615W X X 4 13 17
11.5N 53.5W 13 20 X X 33 TAPA 171N 618W X X 3 13 16
12.5N 56.5W X 14 13 X 27 TKPK 173N 627W X X 1 13 14
SVMG 110N 640W X X X 6 6 TNCM 181N 631W X X 1 12 13
TTPP 106N 614W X X 1 10 11 TISX 177N 648W X X X 11 11
TTPT 112N 608W X X 3 11 14 TIST 183N 650W X X X 10 10
TGPY 120N 618W X X 2 11 13 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 7 7
TBPB 131N 595W X X 14 6 20 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TVSV 131N 612W X X 5 12 17 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 8 8
TLPL 138N 610W X X 7 11 18 ST CROIX VI X X X 11 11
TFFF 146N 610W X X 7 11 18 ST THOMAS VI X X X 10 10
TDPR 153N 614W X X 5 13 18 SAN JUAN PR X X X 8 8
SVBS 157N 636W X X 1 12 13 PONCE PR X X X 7 7
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
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