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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
29.0N 87.0W 48 X X X 48 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2
30.5N 86.5W 29 3 X X 32 VENICE FL X X 1 2 3
32.5N 85.5W 3 15 6 1 25 TAMPA FL X X 2 3 5
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X 3 4 2 9
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 ST MARKS FL 4 9 4 1 18
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 5 6 APALACHICOLA FL 15 5 2 X 22
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 3 7 10 PANAMA CITY FL 23 4 X 1 28
SAVANNAH GA X X 3 9 12 PENSACOLA FL 30 3 X X 33
CHARLESTON SC X X 1 10 11 MOBILE AL 19 6 X 1 26
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 10 10 GULFPORT MS 12 6 1 X 19
WILMINGTON NC X X X 9 9 BURAS LA 12 3 1 X 16
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 8 8 NEW ORLEANS LA 2 5 2 1 10
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 85W 16 4 1 X 21
NORFOLK VA X X X 7 7 GULF 29N 87W 48 X X X 48
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 89W 33 X X X 33
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W 1 1 X X 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT
C FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT
D FROM 1PM SAT TO 1PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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