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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
29.0N 86.7W 46 X X X 46 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 1 1 3
30.5N 86.5W 24 1 X 1 26 FT MYERS FL X 1 3 1 5
32.5N 85.0W 4 6 4 3 17 VENICE FL 1 3 2 1 7
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 1 2 TAMPA FL 1 4 3 1 9
MIAMI FL X X 1 1 2 CEDAR KEY FL 3 5 3 2 13
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 2 3 ST MARKS FL 10 3 3 1 17
FT PIERCE FL X X 2 3 5 APALACHICOLA FL 18 2 1 X 21
COCOA BEACH FL X 1 2 3 6 PANAMA CITY FL 22 2 X X 24
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 4 4 9 PENSACOLA FL 23 1 1 X 25
JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 4 11 MOBILE AL 16 3 1 X 20
SAVANNAH GA X X 4 7 11 GULFPORT MS 11 4 1 X 16
CHARLESTON SC X X 1 9 10 BURAS LA 8 4 X 1 13
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 9 9 NEW ORLEANS LA 3 5 1 1 10
WILMINGTON NC X X X 8 8 NEW IBERIA LA X 2 1 X 3
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 85W 22 1 X X 23
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 87W 44 X X X 44
NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W 11 2 X 1 14
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X 2 X X 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI
C FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT
D FROM 7AM SAT TO 7AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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