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TROPICAL STORM FAY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI SEP 06 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.7N 96.0W 67 X X X 67 FREEPORT TX 70 X X X 70
29.3N 97.0W 34 X 1 X 35 PORT O CONNOR TX 52 X X X 52
29.7N 98.0W 20 5 1 1 27 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 16 3 1 2 22
MMSO 238N 982W X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX 1 2 3 4 10
BURAS LA X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X 1 1 2 4
NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W 10 3 1 1 15
NEW IBERIA LA 1 1 2 3 7 GULF 28N 95W 99 X X X 99
PORT ARTHUR TX 13 3 1 1 18 GULF 27N 96W 19 1 1 1 22
GALVESTON TX 50 X X X 50 GULF 25N 96W X 1 2 3 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT
C FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN
D FROM 7AM SUN TO 7AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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