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HURRICANE KENNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1402
0900Z THU OCT 24 2002
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN
SOUTH TO CABO CORRIENTES...INCLUDING PUERTO VALLARTA.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO MANZANILLO.

PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS 
LATER TODAY.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE KENNA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 150SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.2N 108.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 107.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 115NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 108.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.1N 103.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 27.0N  99.0W...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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