HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1202
0000Z MON SEP 16 2002
 
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
TO PUERTO VALLARTA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.5W AT 16/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.5W AT 16/0000Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 106.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
NNNN