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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1202
2100Z SUN SEP 15 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 115.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
 
 
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