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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1102
2100Z FRI SEP 06 2002
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN BAJA
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LAZARO.  AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 112.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 111.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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