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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
0900Z WED SEP 04 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 122.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 122.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 121.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 122.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N 124.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 26.5N 124.4W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART/AGUIRRE
 
 
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