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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
2100Z TUE SEP 03 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 120.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 120.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 120.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 123.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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