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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
1500Z TUE SEP 03 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 119.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 27.0N 123.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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