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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
0900Z TUE SEP 03 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.3N 120.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N 121.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 122.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 118.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.4N 123.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.3N 123.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE
 
 
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