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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
1500Z SAT AUG 31 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.3W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......175NE 135SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.3W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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