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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1402
0300Z WED OCT 16 2002
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MATANZAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND
CIEGO DE AVILA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND THE
ABACOS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 81.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 81.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 82.2W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 75.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 81.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 29.0N 72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 37.0N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 20SW 40NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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