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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1402
2100Z TUE OCT 15 2002
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA FOR WESTERN CUBA MAY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  82.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  82.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  82.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N  80.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N  78.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.5N  76.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  20SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  82.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 29.5N  72.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  20SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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