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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1402
0300Z TUE OCT 15 2002
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST
FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES NEW PROVIDENCE ISLAND AND THE FAMILY ISLANDS OF
ANDROS...BIMINI...BERRY...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  83.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  83.2W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  83.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N  82.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.4N  80.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  83.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 29.1N  74.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 40.0N  64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/BLAKE
 
 
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