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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1302
1500Z WED OCT 02 2002
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TEXAS TO
HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 88.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 125SE 75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 88.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 88.3W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.1N 92.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.4N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 160SE 110SW 75NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 88.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 33.5N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.5N 82.0W...INLAND AND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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