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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
0900Z WED OCT 02 2002
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST
OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
ALSO AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  87.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 125SE  75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  87.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  87.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.2N  89.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE  75SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N  91.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.2N  92.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N  87.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 38.5N  85.5W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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