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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
0300Z WED OCT 02 2002
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
UNITED STATES WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  86.3W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 125SE  80SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  86.3W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  85.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.4N  88.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.1N  90.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N  92.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N  86.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 30.5N  92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE  90SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 37.0N  88.5W...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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