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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
1500Z TUE OCT 01 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS
IN THESE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LILI.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  83.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  83.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  83.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.8N  85.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.3N  88.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N  83.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.1N  92.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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