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HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1302
1500Z TUE OCT 01 2002
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS
IN THESE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LILI.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 83.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 83.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 83.2W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.8N 85.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.3N 88.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 83.7W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.1N 92.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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