[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
0900Z TUE OCT 01 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.  THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  82.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  35SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  82.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  82.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.2N  84.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N  86.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N  89.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  82.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.7N  91.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 31.0N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
NNNN


Webmaster