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TROPICAL STORM LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
2100Z SUN SEP 29 2002
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...
SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIEGO DE AVILA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  77.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  77.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  77.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N  78.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N  80.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.7N  82.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N  77.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N  84.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 25.4N  88.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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