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TROPICAL STORM LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
2100Z FRI SEP 27 2002
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN
36 HR.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE REMAINDER OF CUBA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LILI.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  75.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  75.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  75.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N  76.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  45SE   0SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N  76.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N  77.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N  75.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.4N  79.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N  81.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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