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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1302
0300Z FRI SEP 27 2002
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LILI.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 73.2W
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.2N 74.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 75.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 76.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 73.5W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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