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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
0300Z FRI SEP 27 2002
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA FRIDAY
MORNING.  ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LILI.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  73.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  80SE  80SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  73.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  73.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.2N  74.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N  75.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N  76.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  73.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N  77.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N  80.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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