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TROPICAL STORM LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
2100Z WED SEP 25 2002
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI FROM PUNTA PALENQUE WESTWARD
TO TIBURON ON THE WESTERN TIP OF THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF
HAITI...AND ALSO FOR JAMAICA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN HAITI MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TONIGHT.
  
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  69.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE   5SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  69.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  69.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N  72.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.3N  74.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  69.6W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N  76.0W...NEAR EASTERN CUBA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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