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TROPICAL STORM LILI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1302
2100Z MON SEP 23 2002
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES FROM ST. LUCIA SOUTHWARD TO GRENADA AND ITS ISLAND
DEPENDENCIES...AND ALSO FOR BARBADOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES FROM GUADELOUPE SOUTHWARD TO MARTINIQUE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  61.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  30SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  50SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  61.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  60.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.3N  63.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  30SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N  66.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N  68.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N  61.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N  70.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N  74.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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