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HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
0300Z SUN SEP 22 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  86.7W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 275SE 100SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  86.7W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  86.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N  87.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N  89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.8N  90.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N  86.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N  91.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 23.0N  92.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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