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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
0300Z THU SEP 19 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA FOR
THE PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SANCTI-SPIRITUS AND CIEGO DE
AVILA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  79.5W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  79.5W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  79.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.7N  80.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N  82.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  79.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 23.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 24.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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