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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED AND CONSISTS OF
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER THAT KEEPS FIRING UP.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1244Z
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE ARE ANY
STRONGER.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SOON DISSIPATE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/7.  A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNDER STEERING FROM A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 15.1N 115.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     16/0600Z 14.9N 116.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.7N 118.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.6N 120.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
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