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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED AND CONSISTS OF 
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTH OF THE CENTER.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
AND ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/8...A LITTLE FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS MOTION ESTIMATE.  A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNDER STEERING FROM A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 15.3N 114.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.1N 115.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 116.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.9N 118.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.9N 120.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
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