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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST THU NOV 14 2002
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SHEARED...WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD 
LINES INDICATE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS.  THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT 
PASS MIGHT WELL REVEAL THAT THE WINDS ARE LOWER.  THE ENVIRONMENT OF 
THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY WITH STRONG WESTERLY 
SHEAR...SO A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS EXPECTED.

EARLIER TODAY WHEN THERE WAS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THE 
MOTION HAD A NORTHWARD COMPONENT.  NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY 
EXPOSED THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST.  THE 
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WITH THE SHALLOW FLOW 
UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.  THE GFS...FOR 
REASONS UNKNOWN...INDICATES A MUCH FASTER MOTION TO THE WEST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 16.2N 112.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N 113.7W    25 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N 116.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N 118.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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