ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST THU NOV 14 2002
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE
SYSTEM AND ARE DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN
FACT...IS QUITE STRONG AT THIS TIME. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER
OVER THE SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION BEGINS. HOWEVER...
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
AND SHALLOW. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK...STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.5N 111.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W 30 KTS
24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 114.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 117.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 17/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
NNNN
Webmaster