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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2002
 
LOWELL CONSISTS OF A FAIRLY SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SMALL
CLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHICH HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT 
IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES IT IS NOT AT THE EASTERN OF OF A EAST-WEST TROUGH...PART
OF A COMPLEX ITCZ EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3C.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND
25 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON
THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND AND AN EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATING 
30 KT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/11.  NOT MUCH TO SAY TRACKWISE.  
LOWELL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD 
CONTINUE LOWELL ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
ALL GUIDANCE SAVE LBAR AGREES WITH THIS...AND SO WILL THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE GFS/AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGESTS THAT LOWELL WILL RUN UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 200 MB IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  ALSO...
THE SHIPS MODEL KEEPS THE SHEAR LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 30 KT
INTENSITY FOR 72 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LARGER...AND LIKELY TO 
BE MORE POWERFUL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3C TO THE WEST IS LIKELY
TO EVENTUALLY KILL LOWELL.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE SHIPS...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS...AND THE INCREASED CONVECTION...THIS INTENSITY 
FORECAST WILL DELAY THE DEMISE OF LOWELL BY 12 HR.  HOWEVER...IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 12.6N 137.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 12.9N 138.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     26/0000Z 13.3N 140.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     26/1200Z 13.7N 142.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     27/0000Z 14.2N 144.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 148.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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