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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2002
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW CONFIRMS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH A
SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
WHILE AIR FORCE GLOBAL ESTIMATES 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
EARLIER TRACK REASONING...AS LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW CENTER IN 24
HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THAT
TIME. ALTHOUGH A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER FOR 72
HOURS...THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.
FORECASTER HOLWEG/FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.3N 136.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 25/0600Z 12.4N 138.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 142.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 26/1800Z 14.0N 143.8W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 15.0N 147.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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